東北大学現代経済学研究会
2012年度記録 (第127-149回)
4月19日(木) 16:20-17:50 第401演習室(文科系総合研究棟4階)

加藤 涼 氏 (日本銀行)

"Bank Overleverage and Macroeconomic Fragility" (abstract, paper)

This paper develops a dynamic general equilibrium model that explicitly includes a banking sector engaged in a maturity mismatch. We demonstrate that rational competitive banks take on excessive risks systemically, resulting in overleverage and inefficiently high crisis probabilities. The model accounts for the bank's seemingly over-optimistic outlook about their own solvency and the asset prices, compared to the social optimum. The result calls for policy intervention to reduce the high crisis probabilities. To this end, the government can commit to bailing out banks through public supply of liquidity or a low-interest rate policy. As opposed to the intention of the government, however, expectations of a bailout could incentivize banks to be even more overleveraged, leaving the economy exposed to higher crisis probabilities.


4月26日(木) 16:20-17:50 第401演習室(文科系総合研究棟4階)

窪田 康平 氏 (山形大学)

「親の所得が子供の教育水準に与える影響」 (abstract)

本研究は、パネルデータを用いて、親の所得が子供の教育水準に与える影響を推定する。子供の教育水準に対する親の所得の影響を推定するためには、脱落変数や計測誤差の問題に対処する必要がある。これらの問題に対処するため、本研究は2世代前の経済水準や教育水準を操作変数として推定する。分析の結果、親の所得が10%増加すると子供の教育年数が1.7%上昇することが示される。さらに、貧困家計において親の所得の10%増加は、子供の教育年数を2.7%上昇させることがあきらかとなる。この結果は、貧困家計に対する直接的な経済支援の効果が大きいことを示す。


5月17日(木) 16:20-17:50 第401演習室(文科系総合研究棟4階)

川田 恵介 氏 (広島大学)

"Migration in Competitive Frictional Labor Market" (abstract)

This paper develops interregional migration model with unemployment. An important assumption of this model is that unemployed workers can search for a job in not only their home region but also other regions, which yields steady state migration flows.. The migration rate to a region is endogenously determined and depends on the value of unemployment, the costs of migration, and workers' productivity in the region. Furthermore, welfare analysis demonstrates that it is too low to migrate to a region in which the value of unemployed workers is relatively high.


5月31日(木) 16:20-17:50 第401演習室(文科系総合研究棟4階)

大野 由夏 氏 (北海道大学)

"International Harmonization of the Patent-Issuing Rules" (abstract, paper)

With the America Invents Act of 2011, the U.S. changed its patent-issuing rule from first-to-invent to first-to-file, the international norm. We investigate the effect of such a policy change in a two-country model of R&D competition for two sequential (basic and final) inventions. We find that a switch never speeds up basic research. A delay is more likely especially in industries where the final product generates more value in the U.S. Simulations show that a delay in basic research also retards final invention, decreasing world welfare.


6月7日(木) 16:20-17:50 第401演習室(文科系総合研究棟4階)

清田 耕造 (横浜国立大学)

"Product and Labor Market Imperfections and Scale Economies: Micro-evidence on France, Japan and the Netherlands" (abstract, paper)

Allowing for three labor market settings, this paper relies on an extension of Hall's econometric framework for simultaneously estimating price-cost mark-ups and scale economies. Using an unbalanced panel of 17,653 firms over the period 1986-2001 in France, 8,725 firms over the period 1994-2006 in Japan, and 7,828 firms over the period 1993-2008 in the Netherlands, we first classify 30 comparable manufacturing industries in six distinct regimes that differ in terms of the type of competition prevailing in product and labor markets. For each of the three predominant regimes in each country, we then investigate industry differences in the estimated product and labor market imperfections and scale economies. We not only find important regime differences across the three countries, but also observe cross-country differences in the levels of product and labor market imperfections and scale economies within a particular regime.


6月21日(木) 13:50-17:00 第24演習室(経済学研究棟1階)
                    *通常と場所・時間が異なりますのでご注意ください。

第一報告(13:50-15:20):

柴山 克行 氏 (University of Kent at Canterbury)

  "Inflation Bias and Stabilization Bias in Rotemberg Pricing" (abstract)

In this paper, we study the welfare implication of discretionary and commitment monetary policy in the standard new Keynesian model, where the goods price is sticky due to the price adjustment cost a la Rotemberg (1982). Unlike Calvo price adjustment, Rotemberg price rigidity allows us to employ a projection method to solve the model without linearizing the model. Hence, we can deal with the model even in large monopolistic distortion cases. In this paper, there are two main findings. First, the unconditional expected value of the welfare loss of discretion is almost same as the welfare loss of discretion in the non-stochastic steady state. That is, discretionary monetary policy is welfare inferior, mainly because it results in higher inflation and output gap in level. Certainly, it is inferior, also because the policy maker's reaction to shocks is different from commitment, generating different fluctuations of output and inflation, but quantitatively the effect of such a difference in the policy reaction is negligible. Second, comparing the results of the projection and the LQ methods, we find that the equilibrium behavior of the model, including the welfare effects, is quite similar to each other. This is somewhat surprising in the sense that this finding holds even in large monopolistic distortion cases. As Gali (2008) and Benigno and Woodford (2003) discuss, when the distortion is large, there is no guarantee that the standard LQ method is a good approximation; we, however, find that, under reasonable parameter sets, it is actually good approximation at least for the standard new Keynesian model with Rotemberg pricing, although it is not clear if we can generalize this conclusion to more large scale models.

第二報告(15:30-17:00):

新谷 元嗣 氏 (Vanderbilt University)

  "Measuring International Business Cycles by Saving for a Rainy Day?" (abstract)

We examine the business cycles of the member countries of the G-7 and Australia based on the cyclical measure considered by Cochrane (1994). The measure is motivated by the prediction that the representative consumer changes savings in response to temporary deviations of income from its stochastic trend, while satisfying a long-run budget constraint. We also compare Cochrane’s original cyclical measure and an alternative simple saving-based measure and show that they track each other. Our analysis reveals that the extent of international business cycle comovement and the Great Moderation are significantly altered when the saving-based measures are employed in place of commonly used univariate business cycle filters.


6月28日(木) 16:20-17:50 第401演習室(文科系総合研究棟4階)

柳瀬 明彦 氏 (東北大学)

"On the Provision of International Public Goods in a Dynamic Global Economy" (abstract)

This paper develops a dynamic two-country model with an international public good, the stock of which has a positive effect on the private sector's productivity in each country and the evolution of the stock is determined by each country's voluntary contribution. Two private goods exist in this economy, and it is shown that the country with a higher contribution technology becomes an exporter of the good which is dependent on the stock of international public good. It is also shown that if the countries act cooperatively, the dynamics of the stock of international public good and its shadow price under free trade coincide with those under autarky, although the paths of each country's contribution level are different. Specifically, the contribution level in the country with a lower contribution technology becomes smaller under free trade than under autarky, and it is shown that this country unambiguously gains from trade. In the noncooperative regime, free trade achieves a larger steady-state stock of international public good than autarky.


7月12日(木) 14:40-16:10 第21演習室(文科系総合研究棟10階)
        *応用統計計量ワークショップとのジョイント・セミナーです。

Minjung Park 氏 (University of California, Berkeley)
"A Dynamic Model of Subprime Mortgage Default: Estimation and Policy Implications" (abstract)

The increase in defaults in the subprime mortgage market is widely held to be one of the causes behind the recent financial turmoil. Key issues of policy concern include identifying the main drivers behind the wave of defaults and predicting the effects of various policy instruments designed to mitigate default. To address these questions, we estimate a dynamic structural model of subprime borrowers' default behavior. We propose a simple and intuitive estimation method, and use our model estimates to simulate how borrowers' default behavior would change under various scenarios. The simulation exercises allow us to quantify the importance of various factors, such as home price declines and loosened underwriting standards, in explaining the recent increase in subprime defaults. Furthermore, we use simulations to assess the effects of principal write-downs and other foreclosure mitigation policies on the behavior of various subsets of borrowers.



7月12日(木) 16:20-17:50 第401演習室(文科系総合研究棟4階)

中島 大輔 氏 (University of Michigan)

"Revealed Willpower"(abstract)
"Exploiting Naive Consumers with Limited Willpower"

In this paper we are interested in the behavior of individuals who have imper- fect control over their immediate urges. Willpower as cognitive resource model has been proposed by experimental psychologists and has also been used by economists to explain various behavioral paradoxes. This paper complements this literature by providing a foundation for the choice behavior that can be represented by the limited willpower model. Working with choices over menus of alternatives, we behaviorally characterize a representation that reflects the behavior of a decision maker who has cognitive limitation in exercising self restraint. In our model, there are only two pe- riods. We observe the agent’s ranking of menus of alternatives at time 0. From this ranking, we derive a representation that reveals the agent’s choices, and hence the willpower problems that she believes she will be facing, in period 1. This two-period model captures key behavioral traits of willpower constrained decision making, and leads to a simple characterization which is mathematically challenging to derive.



7月19日(木) 16:20-17:50 第401演習室(文科系総合研究棟4階)

青木 浩介 氏 (東京大学)

"Asset Portfolio Choice of Banks and Inflation Dynamics" (abstract)

Since the middle of 1990s, the Japanese banks have drastically tilted their asset portfolio towards the government bonds, reducing their lending to firms. In this paper, we investigate the causes and consequences of the changes by introducing the banks' asset portfolio decision into an otherwise standard New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. The banks in our model construct their portfolio under the so-called value at risk constraint that requires banks repay their debt regardless of the realization of the asset returns. Consequently, the banks' asset composition is affected by the maximum loss of the asset returns and the banks' net worth, in addition to the expected asset returns. We find that an increase in down-side risks, deterioration of the banks ’net worth, and slow down of total factor productivity growth induce the banks to hold more government debt, dampening investment and reducing inflation. We estimate the model by Baynesian estimation and find that such banks' portfolio decision plays an important role in the accumulation of government bond and deflation since the latter 1990s.


10月17日(水) 16:20-17:50 第401演習室(文科系総合研究棟4階)

森田 穂高 氏 (Univ. of New South Wales)

"Knowledge Transfer and Partial Equity Ownership" (abstract)

When firms form an alliance, it often involves one firm acquiring an equity stake in its alliance partner. Such an alliance weakens competition, but induces knowledge transfer between partner firms. We explore oligopoly models that capture the link between knowledge transfer and partial equity ownership (PEO), where alliance partners can choose the level of PEO to connect themselves. PEO, merger and independence are all nested in our model, where PEO can arise in equilibrium and the endogenously determined level of PEO can benefit consumers and/or society. We identify conditions under which antitrust authorities would prohibit, partially permit, or permit PEO.


10月18日(木) 16:20-17:50 第401演習室(文科系総合研究棟4階)
                *国際文化研究科とのジョイント・セミナーです。

Minchung Hsu 氏 (政策研究大学院大学)

"Financing Health Care in Japan: A Fast Aging Population and the Dilemma of Reforms" (abstract)

This paper is aimed at providing a quantitative analysis of the impact of population aging in Japan on financing its universal health insurance system and potential reform policies. We construct a general equilibrium life cycle economy that is used to study the impact of an aging population on household’s work and savings behavior, as well as on aggregate output and welfare. In particular, taking 2010 as an initial steady state, we calculate the transition path predicted by our model as the population structure changes and medical costs increase. We also evaluate various policy alternatives designed to lessen the negative impact of aging on the economy. We show that even though the potential reforms improve the welfare of the future generation significantly, there is a political difficulty to implement any of the reforms.


10月25日(木) 16:20-17:50 第401演習室(文科系総合研究棟4階)

宇南山 卓 氏 (一橋大学)

「女性の結婚の意思決定と労働市場:国勢調査による分析」 (abstract)

国勢調査に基づくコーホート分析によれば、過去30年間、結婚と就業の両立可能性は変化していなかった。同じ期間、日本では未婚化が進行してきた。本研究では、両立可能性と結婚の意思決定をモデル化し、未婚化の原因が明らかにした。その結果、フルタイム労働者については男女の賃金格差が縮小したのに対し、女性のフルタイム労働者とパートタイム労働者の賃金格差が拡大したことが未婚化の原因と考えられた。


10月31日(水) 16:20-17:50 第401演習室(文科系総合研究棟4階)

Julen Esteban-Pretel 氏 (政策研究大学院大学)

"The Labor Market Effects of Introducing Unemployment Benefits in an Economy with High Informality" (abstract)

Unemployment benefit systems are non-existent in many developing economies. Introducing such programs in these economies poses many challenges, which is partly due to the high level of informality in their labor markets. In this paper we study the consequences on the labor market of implementing an unemployment benefit system in economies with large informal sectors and high flows of workers between formality and informality. We build a search and matching model with en- dogenous destruction, on-the-job search and inter-sectoral flows, where agents in the economy decide optimally whether or not to formalize jobs. We calibrate the model for Mexico and show that the in- troduction of an unemployment subsidy system, where workers contribute during formal employment and collect benefits when they lose the job, can deliver an increase in formality in the economy while also producing small increases in unemployment. The exact impact of incorporating such benefits depends on the relative strength of two opposing effects: the generosity of the benefits and the level of the contributions that finance those benefits. We also show important policy complementarities with other interventions in the labor market. In particular, combining the unemployment benefit program with policies that reduce the cost of formality, such as lower firing costs or taxes, can produce decreases in informality and lower impacts on unemployment than when the subsidy program is applied in isolation.


11月15日(木) 16:20-17:50 第401演習室(文科系総合研究棟4階)

中室 牧子 氏 (東北大学)

"The Rate of Return to Education Using Twins Data in Japan" (abstract)

The objective of this article is to measure the causal effect of education on earnings using the sample of twins in Japan, which is collected through the web-based survey. The empirical results show that the conventional OLS estimate is 10.0%, but we obtain 9.3% of the estimated rate of return to education after omitted ability bias and measurement errors in self-reported schooling corrected. This finding suggests that the conventional OLS estimate is not largely contaminated by potential biases.


11月22日(木) 16:20-17:50 第401演習室(文科系総合研究棟4階)

小川 禎友 氏 (近畿大学)

"Optimal Taxation in an Open Economy" (abstract)

This paper analyzes optimal taxation using commodity taxes and tariffs as tax instruments given a revenue constraint in an open economy. In the analysis, we consider four alternative cases, depending on whether the country is small or large and whether the commodity tax system operates under the destination or origin principle. We find the optimal commodity tax expressions are identical in all four cases, which implies no difference in the policy implications of optimal commodity taxes across a wide range of situations, whereas the optimal tariff expressions take different forms depending on the country type and taxation system. These expressions then yield some optimal commodity tax and tariff rules.


11月29日(木) 16:20-17:50 第401演習室(文科系総合研究棟4階)

天谷 研一 氏 (香川大学)

"Perfect Foresight Equilibrium Selection in Signaling Games" (abstract)

We study equilibrium selection in signaling games under perfect foresight dynamics. We consider a two-type two-signal version of the job market signaling model a la Spence (1973). If the worker with high productivity prefers the separating equilibrium to the pooling equilibrium, the separating equilibrium is locally and globally stable. If the preference is reversed and the pooling equilibrium is type-H half dominant, which is an extension of the concept of risk dominance a la Harsanyi and Selten (1988), the pooling equilibrium is locally and globally stable for sufficiently small degree of friction. Finally the Pareto inefficient pooling equilibrium is locally unstable.


12月6日(木)
        *国際文化研究科とのジョイント・セミナーです。

池田 大輔 氏 (日本銀行)

"Adverse Selection, Lemons Shocks and Business Cycles" (abstract)

I develop dynamic general equilibrium models in which private information about investment project's riskiness causes adverse selection in credit markets. I study the effect of lemons shocks which change a density of risky but equally productive projects, or lemons. An increases in lemons aggravates adverse selection, raises interest rate spreads and shrinks intermediation. Amplified by a counter-cyclical markup in wages and variable capital utilization rates, the lemons shock drives business cycles. I establish a close link between the lemons shock and other shocks including financial shocks.


12月20日(木) 14:40-17:50 第401演習室(文科系総合研究棟4階)

(1) 寺島 康生 氏 (Bank of Canada)

     "Wholesale Funding and Banks in Canada" (abstract1, abstract2)

"Effects of Funding Portfolios on the Credit Supply of Canadian Banks":
This paper studies how banks manage two sides of their balance sheet. How banks manage their balance sheet has implications for the risk they bear and for real economic activities associated with bank loans. Specifically, we ask three questions to shed light on this issue. First, when funding (i.e., liability) portfolio changes how dose it affect the supply of bank loans? Second, how do credit supply behaviour of wholesale-funding reliant banks change during periods of low- for-long monetary policy rates? Third, how did credit supply bahaviour of banks change during the recent crisis? The ndings suggest that contemporaneous changes in wholesale funding is positively associated with large business loans. In addition, we nd a suggestive evidence of risk- taking behaviour by wholesale funding reliant banks as their credit supply increase during periods of low-for-long monetary policy rates. Finally, mortgage-loan supply of wholesale funding reliant banks increased during the crisis, a likely result of government policies to increase the liquidity of the mortgage market during the crisis.
"Leverage, Balance Sheet Size and Wholesale Funding":
Positive co-movements in bank leverage and assets are associated with leverage pro- cyclicality. As wholesale funding allows banks to quickly adjust leverage, banks with wholesale funding are expected to exhibit higher leverage procyclicality. Using Canadian data, we analyze (i) if leverage procyclicality exists and its dependence on wholesale funding, (ii) market factors associated with this procyclicality, and (iii) if banking-sector leverage procyclicality forecasts market volatility. The ndings suggest that procyclicality exists and that its degree positively depends on use of wholesale funding. Furthermore, funding-market liquidity matters for this procycli- cality. Finally, banking-sector leverage procyclicality can forecast volatility in the equity market.

(2) 大垣 昌夫 氏 (慶應義塾大学)

     "Cultures, Worldviews, and Intergenerational Altruism" (abstract)

This paper presents empirical evidence concerning effects of cultural differences on parents’ attitudes toward children from unique U.S. and Japanese survey data. These data sets have been collected by Osaka University, and contain questions concerning worldviews and religions, hypothetical questions about parental behavior, and questions about socioeconomic variables. The data show that U.S. parents tend to be tougher than Japanese parents toward young children. Our evidence suggests that contents of worldview beliefs held by parents affect par- ents’ attitudes toward children. Our empirical evidence also indicates that people who are confident about worldview beliefs tend to show tough attitudes toward their children. Because U.S. parents are much more confident than Japanese parents in worldview beliefs on the av- erage, this cultural difference helps explain a substantial portion of the difference in parental attitudes between U.S. and Japanese parents.


1月11日(金) 16:20-17:50 大会議室(経済学部研究棟4階)
        *応用統計計量ワークショップとのジョイント・セミナーです。

井上 篤 氏 (North Carolina State University)

"Frequentist Inference in Weakly Identified DSGE Models" (abstract)

A common problem in estimating DSGE models is that the structural parameters of economic interest are only weakly identified. As a result, classical confidence sets and Bayesian credible sets will not coincide even asymptotically, and the mean, mode or median of the posterior distribution of the structural parameters can no longer be viewed as a consistent estimator. We propose two methods of constructing confidence intervals for structural model parameters that are asymptotically valid from a frequentist point of view regardless of the strength of identification. One involves inverting a likelihood ratio test statistic, whereas the other involves inverting a Bayes Factor statistic. A simulation study shows that both methods have more accurate coverage than alternative methods of inference. An empirical study of the degree of wage and price rigidities in the U.S. economy illustrates that the data may contain useful information about structural model parameters even when these parameters are only weakly identified.


1月18日(金) 14:40-17:50 第24演習室(経済学部棟1階)

(1) 國光 類 氏 (神戸大学)

     「住宅のバリアフリー化による介護費用軽減効果の実証分析」(abstract)

 本稿では、住宅のバリアフリー化が介護保険における要介護認定率に与える因果的効果を推定し、介護の軽減効果を明らかにする。特に、阪神淡路大震災という自然実験を活用することで、住環境整備の内生性の問題を解決した。その結果、バリアフリー化が重度の認定率に与える影響は有意に負で、OLS推定量よりも小さいことが明らかになった。 住宅改修に関する研究には、要支援もしくは要介護者のみを対象とし、改修の実態と効果、支援の在り方を示した研究や、特定の疾病に対する住まい方の工夫としての住宅改修に関する研究がある。こうした先行研究によると、バリアフリー化には家庭内事故の減少(村田・田中・安藤・広原,2003)、家族の介護負担の軽減(中山・城丸・中村,2003)、身体的・精神的な意識の変化(堀・本間・桜井,2007)等、様々な利点が報告されている。
 しかし、バリアフリーが持つ予防的側面を考えた場合、要介護認定を受けていない高齢者の住宅改修も考慮に入れるべきである。先行研究は、住宅改修を行った要支援者もしくは要介護者に対する訪問調査やアンケート調査に基づいており、サンプルセレクション・バイアスが生じている可能性がある。また、将来要介護になることを見越して住宅改修に踏み切る人は、そうでない人に比べて身体機能が弱い可能性があり、身体機能を無視したクロス・セクション分析には欠落変数バイアスが生じる危険性がある。
ここでは、住宅改修の内生性の問題を解決する為に、1995年1月に発生した阪神・淡路大震災における住宅の全・半壊のデータを操作変数として活用する。震災による住宅倒壊は外生的で、住宅の建て替えを引き起こす。また、1995年6月には新設の全ての住宅において一定の高齢化対応仕様が標準化されたため 、震災後に建てられた住宅はバリアフリー住宅が多い。その意味で、操作変数の条件である外生性・妥当性を満たしていると考えられる。
 推計の結果、要介護度の程度によってバリアフリー化の効果が異なることが明らかになった。要介護2以上の重度認定率において有意に負で、バリアフリー化が進むと重度要介護者の介護必要量が低下している。また、操作変数法による推計量がOLS推計量より小さいことから、住宅改修による予防効果を過小評価していた可能性がある。住宅改修は要介護者の自立を促し、全面的な介助が必要な状態に陥るリスクを低減する効果があることが分かった。
 さらに、バリアフリー化の段階別にみると、バリアフリー化が高度になればなる程、認定率の引き下げ効果は増加する。高齢者設備がある程度備わっている住宅に関しても、より高度なバリアフリー住宅にすることで介護費用の低減が期待できる。ただし、高度なバリアフリー住宅にするためには大規模な工事が必要となるため、住宅改修の費用とのバランスを考える必要がある。

(2) 片山 東 氏 (早稲田大学)

     "Do Social Norms Matter to Energy Saving Behavior? Social Endogenous and Correlated Effects" (abstract)

Social norms have received growing attention as a potential driver for pro-environmental behavior, partly due to ample empirical evidence based on survey data. Previous studies typically rely on reduced-form methods that cannot distinguish between social endogenous and correlated effects, although the two effects have different policy implications. In this study, using data from a Japanese household survey on energy saving behavior, we estimate a structural model that accounts for simultaneity, common shocks and nonrandom group selection, thereby distinguishing between the two key effects. We find that the influence of social norms on energy saving behavior is insignificant or small, if any, while simple reduced-form estimates are found to be large and highly significant as in previous studies. Our results demonstrate the possibility that findings obtained in survey-based household studies mainly reflect a correlation rather than the causation between social norms and pro-environmental behavior.


1月24日(木) 16:20-17:50 第401演習室(文科系総合研究棟4階)

若林 緑 氏 (大阪府立大学)

"Commitments in Marriage and Undersaving" (abstract)

We examine whether or not married individuals who exhibit hyperbolic time discounting and leave their saving decision to their spouses are more likely to save close to the amount of financial asset they would have wanted to save. Our analysis is a cross-sectional analysis using the micro-data of married Japanese couple from waves 2008 and 2009 of the Preference Parameters Study of Osaka University. Our estimation results are as follows: for the wives who exhibit hyperbolic discounting the ratio of the balance of financial assets of their entire household to the amount of entire household’s financial assets the respondent would have wanted to save until now is approximately 11.6 percentage more when the wives discuss together but their husband decide than when the wives decide. We conclude that wives with time inconsistent preference face serious self control problems and the wives are so sophisticated that they discuss with their husband and leave the decision making on saving and investment to their husbands. They can avoid temptation to overspend and achieve their target savings.


1月26日(土) 14:00-17:20 国際文化研究科棟1階 会議室 (アクセス
        *国際文化研究科とのジョイント・セミナーです。

(1) 鎌田 伊佐生 氏 (University of Wisconsin-Madison)

     "The Structure of Bilateral Commodity Trade: The Role of Extensive Margins in Revealed Comparative Advantage"(abstract)

This paper examines the cross-country and cross-industry variations in the extensive margins of heterogeneous-firm model (Melitz, 2003). We estimate extensive margins from the first stage regression of Helpman, Melitz, and Rubinstein (2008) and compare them with revealed comparative advantage index from Balassa (1965). By using the bilateral trade data of 144 differentiated products from 127 countries during the period of 2005-2008, we estimate the firm -level productivity-range (extensive margin) for each exporter-importer pairs for each product (firm) in each year. We also develop the product- and country- specific measures of revealed comparative advantage for each year. We find that there are positive relationships between the logs of extensive margins and those of revealed comparative advantages across products within a country and across countries within a product. Our results indicate that it is relatively easier for firms in comparative advantage sectors to access foreign markets. The "neo- classical" wisdom of comparative advantage is (still) an important element of the recent heterogeneous model of trade.

(2) Nicola Coniglio 氏 (University of Bari)

     "International Integration with Heterogeneous Immigration Policies" (abstract)

This paper investigates the welfare effects of uncoordinated changes in (heterogeneous) immigration policies adopted by economically integrated Sovereign States. We build a simple three country model where two developed countries with different immigration policies receive immigrants from the third developing country. We show the existence of cross-country policy externalities. In particular, we show that a more skill-selective immigration policy of one developed country might negatively affect welfare in an alternative migration destination which applies an immigration quota. In addition we consider the effects of free mobility of native workers between the two developed countries. We show that under certain conditions, labour market integration might lead to both win-win or lose-lose situations depending on the sign of the wage gap between the two developed countries. In addition, we shed light on the possibility of a "boomerang effect" of stricter immigration policy since a more skill selective immigration policy under certain conditions might translates into overall larger inflows of (irregular) immigrants.


1月31日(木) 16:20-17:50 第401演習室(文科系総合研究棟4階)

大土井 涼二 氏 (東京工業大学)

"Dynamic analysis of a scale-invariant growth model with endogenous fertility: Emergence of multiple growth paths and its welfare implication" (abstract)

Considering endogenous fertility, this paper investigates the dynamics of our scale-invariant growth model. Assuming the utility function having the rationale and convex child rearing costs, we find the possibility of multiple growth paths. Even in an economy whose technology has the potential to generate long-run growth, such growth may not be realized because households may not increase their family size as a result of their coordination failure. In this case, the government intervention could be twofold. Furthermore, compared with the firstbest allocation, whether we have too few children depends on the preferences of households.


3月21日(木) 16:20-17:50 第401演習室(文科系総合研究棟4階)

尾崎 裕之 氏 (慶應義塾大学)

"Monetary Equilibria and Knightian Uncertainty" (abstract)

This article considers a pure-endowment stationary stochastic overlapping generations economy, in which agents have maximin expected utility preferences. Two main results are obtained. First, we show that multiple stationary monetary equilibria exist, and hence real as well as price indeterminacy arises under the assumption that aggregate shock exists. Second, we show that each of these stationary monetary equilibria is conditionally Pareto optimal; i.e., no other stationary allocations strictly Pareto dominate the equilibrium allocations.